The numbers, with the assumptions.
A backtest is only meaningful if you can see how it was produced. Here are the results of the Bitcoin signal system on the 4-hour timeframe, together with the conditions they were measured under.
How the test was run
| Assumption | Value |
|---|---|
| Asset | Bitcoin (BINANCE:BTCUSDT) |
| Timeframe | 4 hours |
| Test period | Jan 6, 2020 to Jun 1, 2026 |
| Initial capital | 1,000 USDT |
| Order size | 100% of equity |
| Commission | 0.1% per trade |
| Slippage | 0 ticks |
| Direction | Long only |
| Leverage | None (spot only) |
Full results
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Net profit | 11,718 USDT |
| Annualised return (CAGR) | 34% |
| Profit factor | 2.24 |
| Win rate | 46% (23 of 50) |
| Total closed trades | 50 |
| Winners / losers | 23 / 27 |
| Average profit / average loss | 2.63 |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.28 |
| Sortino ratio | 1.07 |
| Average bars in winners / losers | 173 / 54 |
What a backtest is, and is not
A backtest applies the exact rules of the system to real historical price data, so the results describe the same logic that runs today rather than a story about it. The figures above account for trading commission and do not change the rules to flatter the outcome. The win rate is modest on purpose: like most trend-following approaches, the system takes many small losses while waiting for a few large gains, which is why the profit factor matters more than how often it is right.
A backtest is not a promise about the future. Markets change, and past performance is not indicative of future results. We publish the assumptions so the numbers can be judged on their merits, not taken on faith. The specific parameters of the system are not disclosed, but the outcomes are not hidden either, and every past signal is visible inside the app.
Backtest on BINANCE:BTCUSDT, 4-hour timeframe, Jan 6, 2020 to Jun 1, 2026, with 1,000 USDT initial capital, 0.1% commission per trade, 100% of equity per position, long only, spot, no leverage. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Nothing here is financial advice.
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